A Radical Alternative to Drafting Haredim Into the IDF: Don't Start Wars
Netanyahu no longer fears accusations of caving to the Haredim as long as they keep him in power. But he is also now identified with a multi-front forever war. That gives the opposition an opening in the election
Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir has been more forthright than his predecessors in openly calling for drafting ultra-Orthodox draft-age men, and he has reason to do so: According to the Manpower Directorate, the Israel Defense Forces is short of 12,000 soldiers, of which 6,000 to 7,500 are needed for combat, and it needs ultra-Orthodox recruits to fill the gap.
Despite Zamir's obvious distress, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ignores him while the coalition's strong man, Arye Dery, accuses him of "aiding the leftist bloc."
Supporters of conscription in the ultra-Orthodox community see it as a tool for social change, a segue for ultra-Orthodox men to enter the labor market and the way to ensure a fairer distribution of the military burden among all of Israel's Jewish citizens.
Opponents contend that it will be impossible to draft such a large segment of the population that sees military service as a threat to their way of life and their faith. They also worry about the "Haredization" of the army and the strengthening of nationalism and militarism in ultra-Orthodox society, like what happened in the religious Zionist community.
The October 7 war was supposed to settle the debate for advocates of the ultra-Orthodox draft. The reserve duty system has reached a breaking point; soldiers are coping with physical and moral injury; the war has been expanded to multiple fronts; and the government is avoiding an end to the fighting. Under the circumstances, drafting ultra-Orthodox men may seem to be a national imperative.
But the prime minister has done exactly the opposite. Instead of increasing the size of the army and integrating ultra-Orthodox men into his "Sparta state," Netanyahu saw a political opportunity: As long as the ultra-Orthodox fear the draft, the more they will cling to the man who protects them from induction centers, uniforms and military funerals.t
‘What if there aren't free and fair elections in Israel in October? What are we going to do?’
Netanyahu does not care if he is accused of caving to Dery, Moshe Gafni or Yitzchak Goldknopf, so long as they keep him in power. Thus, the ultra-Orthodox men were not drafted after October 7, 2023, and it is reasonable to assume that they will not be drafted after the election, even if a "government of change" comes to power, because it will be too weak to enforce the draft.her
The solution to the manpower shortage lies elsewhere: fewer wars. Zamir has warned the security cabinet that the government was imposing more and more tasks on the IDF without boosting troop numbers. Occupying territory in Gaza, Syria and Lebanon, seizing land in the West Bank, the attack on Iran and now, preparations for a new front, this one against the chief of staff's rival, Shin Bet security service head David Zini, who sees the Palestinian Authority, Egypt and Jordan as enemies.
Faced with all these foes, if all the ultra-Orthodox men in Israel were drafted, as well as those in Brooklyn, and reservists were required to serve till the day they die, it would still not close the manpower gap. Indeed, it would grow bigger.
After the Yom Kippur War, the IDF grew and grew until the peace agreement with Egypt enabled Israel to reduce its ranks and spend more on civilian needs. Since then, it has been clear that the surest way to ensure security is the peace agreements and security arrangements with its neighbors – not additional troops and arms.
The Arab world sided with Israel on the October 7 war, some openly and some silently, even after its exploits in Gaza and Lebanon, the expansion of its borders and its sorties to Iran over Arab countries' skies along the way. Even the humiliated and battered Palestinian Authority continues to coordinate security in the West Bank.
Netanyahu, who in the past demonstrated military restraint, is today identified with a multi-front forever war. This presents an opportunity for the opposition leadership that wants to replace him. Instead of empty promises about doing a better job of fighting and winning, they need to call for an end to the wars, curb Israel's territorial expansion and seek peace. Only in this way can Israel solve the manpower problem, reduce the burden on reservists and return to the family of nations.